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Andrew Smith

The Recession and LeBron
By Andrew Smith - Oct 15, 2008 1:37 pm

Two important pieces of news came out in the last few days that will have a direct impact on the Knicks and what is almost sure to be a full-court effort to sign LeBron James in 2010.

First, it was released that the NBA would be eliminating 80 jobs league-wide based in their three American offices in an effort to cut costs and increase his workforce globally. It’s been publicized that David Stern is setting his sights on having NBA teams play in European cities, an idea that I believe will ultimately fail. (I’m currently working on a thesis which will argue against Stern’s Napoleonic plan). But, I digress. This layoff of 9 % of the NBA’s American workforce is a clear sign that the NBA’s profits are down and that Stern will be looking for anything that could reverse this trend.

The second story that affects the Knicks is the recent news that New Jersey Nets principal owner Bruce Ratner’s elaborate Atlantic Yards plan will once again be delayed. The Atlantic Yards proposal was another topic on which I wrote a paper on and it is an extremely complicated situation. But, in my best efforts to sum it up:

Ratner and his Forest City real estate development group have a plan in place to develop 8 acres of land in Brooklyn (some privately-owned and some city-owned) with 16 high-rise buildings consisting of commercial and residential space and a ultra-modern arena for the Nets. There were many hang-ups in the project that included class action lawusits, environmental concerns, potentially sketchy under-the-table dealings with the New York City government, a failure to provide enough affordable housing under state law, and a failure to provide an adequate remedy for those Brooklynites who would lose their homes from the development. Basically, Ratner was hoping that moving the Nets to Brooklyn would keep the citizens of the borough pleased with the overall project, but instead was greeted with almost unanimous disdain for the development and the financial effects it would have on the surrounding neighborhoods of Brooklyn Heights and Park Slope.

This most recent court decision that will again delay the project will make it nearly impossible for the Nets to be in Brooklyn for the 2010-2011 NBA season. Even if the development of the arena could potentially be ready by that time, Ratner will not want to pursue the development of the arena on its own, without also developing the high-rise commercial buildings that will bring in his own personal profits. And, with the state of the economy, Ratner will almost certainly continue to find it impossible to find an anchor tenant to move their offices from Manhattan to Brooklyn. What this means is that the Nets could still be in the market for a new home when their Meadowlands lease runs out, and if there is no arena in Brooklyn to move to, their only option could be signing a lease at the Prudential Center in Newark, a place where it is hard to imagine LeBron being swayed by, with or without Jay-Z.

Now, I know admittedly know very little about the current sub-prime mortgage crisis, but Cleveland Cavaliers owner Daniel Gilbert is the owner of Quicken Loans, a company who freely gave out home loans and made it very simple for low-to-middle income citizens. There can’t be much truth to Gilbert’s statements that his company is doing well, which leads me to believe that it could eventually impact the Cavaliers’ already miniscule chances of retaining King James. (If anybody has a better analysis of how the mortgage crisis affects Quicken Loans, please don’t hesitate to put it in the comments section).

These situations with the Cavaliers and Nets, along with the NBA’s need for more revenue that would come from having a superstar in New York, along with the fact that Guitar Jimmy Dolan’s Cablevision conglomerate continues to see a raise in profits, tells me that the chances of LeBron donning orange and blue are looking brighter.

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1 Comment »

Comment by BiggieSmalls
2008-10-15 21:03:58

thats a very good point regarding Quicken Loans.

According to Wikipedia Gilbert and a partner started the firm in 1985 and went public in 1998 as the largest independent mortgage company in the country.

Intuit (The parent that makes the Quicken financial software) bought the mortgage company in 1999 for 532 million.

Gilbert bought it back to be a private co in 2002 for 64 million.

So it figures Gilbert has a bunch of excess personal capital as he sold high on the company and bought it back at the low before the recent run up in the housing market.

Since its private there isnt much info on it. But as a mortgage underwriter they most assuredly sold off most if not all of their loans to the financial companies that are now having all the problems. They probably have very little exposure other than not having many new mortgages to write and focusing on “plain vanilla mortgages” rather than more exotic loans.

 
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