Season Preview: Take Two
Andrew Smith: The Numbers Game
My initial hopes for this season preview were to use statistics such as PER, plus-minus, effective field goal percentage, and all of the other sabermetrics that enrage old-school basketball fans to show why the Knicks will improve on last year’s 23-59 record. But, after taking one glance at last season’s numbers, it’s just too damn ugly. According to the website 82games.com, Knicks’ opponents shot a hefty .485 % from the field last season, the best (or worst, whichever way you look at it) in the NBA, and in a mind-boggling number, the Knicks did not manage to be better than their opponents over the course of the season in ANY category.
So, it would be very difficult for Mike D’Antoni to not improve these numbers with the simple addition of calling plays on offense and having a better conditioned team. The acquisition of Chris Duhon will definitely make the point guard position a little more stable, but it is D’Antoni’s system that will have the most impact, and it could simply come from the fact that he will hold the players more accountable for poor play on the court. If Eddy Curry doesn’t box out, he will come out. If Quentin Richardson bricks six three-pointers in a row, bench. If Jamal Crawford dribbles for 14 seconds before taking a fade-away jumper, OUT. It’s going to be his way, or no way, which will be very beneficial to the potential improvement of this team.
Last year, the five-man unit which saw the most minutes for the Knicks was Marbury-Crawford-Richardson-Randolph-Curry, and in their 265 minutes together they were an incredible minus 108. While, the best five-man unit together was Crawford-Jones-Jeffries-Lee-Randolph who finished their 76 minutes together at a plus 20 rate. This group clearly has more defined roles on the court, and if we replace Jones with Duhon and Jeffries with Wilson Chandler, plus D’Antoni’s no-BS attitude and I think you’re looking at a unit that can continue to be in the positive numbers.
So, I think all Knicks fans can agree that we’re going to see an improved product on the floor. You won’t see Curry and Randolph together on the floor, you won’t see Marbury and Crawford together on the floor. D’Antoni is going to make sure that he has a cohesive unit with defined roles that buy into his system of quick passes and backdoor cuts.
Sounds peachy, right? Well as Lee Corso says, “Not so fast, my friend.” Throw out all the statistics and numbers and just take a quick glance around the NBA and ask yourself, “Who are we going to beat?”
Here’s a breakdown of our opponents this season:
4- (Boston, Charlotte, Cleveland, Detroit, Milwaukee, New Jersey, Orlando, Philadelphia, Toronto, Washington)
3- (Atlanta, Chicago, Indiana, Miami)
2 -(Dallas, Denver, Golden State, Houston, LA Clippers, LA Lakers, Memphis, Minnesota, New Orleans, Oklahoma City, Phoenix, Portland, Sacramento, San Antonio, Utah)
We cannot sweep any of our four-time opponents. Who could we go 3-1 against? Charlotte, Milwaukee, New Jersey, and maybe Washington. The other six teams make up 24 of our 82 games and I think an 8-16 mark in those games might even be too generous.
We have favorable matchups against our three-time opponents, so let’s say conservatively that we go 6-6 in those 12 games, give or take a win.
Now factor in the deep Western conference. Among the upper echelon teams of Houston, Lakers, New Orleans, Phoenix, San Antonio, and Utah, I think 2-10 is a reasonable record. In the other 18 games, I think 9-9 is a fair estimate considering how poorly Atlantic Division teams play on west-coast trips.
So, that’s my statistical equation and my elaborate formula brings me to the Knicks winning somewhere between 30-36 games. So, let’s go with a 33-49 record, good enough for meaningful games through March and a mediocre late lottery pick, but on the plus side we will finally have a team that we won’t be ashamed to root for.
