Mitch Lawrence on Draft Prospects

by Chris Alvino on March 22nd, 2009 at 3:13 pm

Sticking with the NCAA tourney and NBA lottery theme, Mitch Lawrence wrote a piece about this year’s draft prospects.  I am a huge fan of the NBA draft.  I think it might be one of my top 3 favorite nights of the entire year.  As the NBA and college seasons come to a close, I will be doing a lot more on the draft, but it is never too early to start thinking about these things.  Just asks the fellas over at nbadraft.net.

Quickly on Lawrence’s piece.  First of all, there is no question that Griffin will be the number one overall pick.  I remember watching the draft lottery when Tim Duncan finally came out.  I remember watching the lottery when Yao Ming was coming over from China.  I remember watching the LeBron James lottery.  In all three cases, the winners of the lottery knew exactly who was going to don their team hats on draft night.  This year’s lottery is going to be no different.

Lawrence hits a few other prospects right on the head.  Maynor from VCU (who I think reminds me a bit of Marbury) will climb draft boards as the draft nears.   Jordan Hill will also climb up the charts.  Harden will be a top 5 pick.  Holiday, while he is being compared to Westbrook, can still use a bit more seasoning in my opinion.  I have no doubt that he is a top flight talent, but I would like to see what he can do as the leader of the UCLA team next year.

Lawrence might be overrating Collison a bit in this piece in terms of putting him on the lottery bubble.  There are also a couple of players that Lawrence underrates.  Gerald Henderson will absolutely be a lottery pick.  He is not on any bubble.  Also, if Chase Budinger falls out of the first round, which Lawrence apparently feels is possible, then I want to see Donnie Walsh do anything he can to acquire the first pick of the second round and nab this guy.  Guys with Budinger’s size, athletic ability, and shooting ability do not come around all the time.  He is not a top flight prospect, but he does get a bad rap from a lot of people.  Scouts question his passion, but in the games that I watch, I do not see a player that is passionless.  Budinger would be a nice player on this team with Mike D’Antoni.

Also, Jeff Teague, if he comes out this year, has way too much talent to fall completely out of the lottery.  I think he’ll wind up in the 6-11 range.  I am not sold on Teague as a pure point guard, but he definitely has the tools to develop into one.

About Chris Alvino

Chris Alvino grew up in Crestwood, NY. He graduated from Regis High School in 2005. There he played both basketball and baseball. Chris is currently a student at Boston College, where he practices with the varsity Women's Basketball Team (... seriously). Chris has been a Knicks' fan for years and can literally talk about them all day long, every day of the week. Chris enjoys writing on this blog and seeing what everyone out there has to say about it. View all posts by Chris Alvino →
  • Mucha

    Chris you should want everybody to declare this year (Holiday included) because we won’t have any first rounder next year. We need a crowded lottery to get a better pick this year, unless the Knicks finally hit the jackpot.

  • BiggieSmalls

    Given the economy, the perceived weak draft and the upcoming Collective bargaining turmoil I cant see why ANY PLAYER who has a shot at going in the first round would not at least declare without an agent this year.

    As long as they dont hire an agent they can pull out if they dont get a substantial promise of a high draft spot.

    Plus, given how Westbrook worked out last year teams will be looking for young, athletic, defensive minded points who may not have lit it up every nite but have potential.

  • Chris Alvino

    Mucha- I meant that simply from a personal growth perspective for Holiday. As a Knick fan, I would love him.

    But I think he can definitely use more seasoning.

    The Knicks should be in a good position to get a point guard this draft. If Holiday comes out, then there will be a bunch of talented points coming out for the Knicks to look at. With Teague, Jennings, Holiday, Maynor all projected to go in the top half of the first round, as well as Lawson and Collison projecting to go in the bottom half, there will be point guards available for Walsh to sift through.

    Ideally Walsh can find another pick somewhere in this draft, either through buying one or trading for one. While there are only a couple of potential stars, there are definitely a huge bunch of talented players that might fall a bit in the draft. A player like Teague is a prime example. If he falls out of the lottery, he will be an absolute steal for whoever gets him. If Budinger falls out of the first round, whoever gets him in the second round will also get a steal.

  • Jeff Cykiert

    What about Rubio? Does anyone else think he has the potential to be a 100% pure, amazing, pass first point guard who also happens to play stellar defense?

    I know it is not entirely clear whether or not he will be in the draft, but assuming he is, do you guys think it is feasible to trade up for him. If so, is it even worth it? I think so.

  • Jeff Cykiert

    He has such a high IQ and incredible court vision; add 5 years of professional experience: I think a solid PG of that mold is exactly what this system needs.

  • EQ1217

    The only way to get Rubio is if a team with a top 3 pick wants David Lee or to a lesser extent Chandler along with our pick, besides that we really don’t have anyone with high lottery value. (I’m not including Gallo, because I think he might be the only untouchable).

  • EQ1217

    I wonder if Aldrich of Kansas will come out? He had a triple double today

    Budinger would be good for the Knicks, but I would prefer Williams from L’ville. I know he can’t really shoot now, but with hard work you never know.

  • Mucha

    Don’t worry I understood that, I just wanted to say that I don’t give a… care about a player’s developpment right now, we’ll need a packed lottery to increase our options if we’re not lucky enough to get a top 5 pick. I know you know that, I just wanted to say it.

  • Mucha

    James Harden’s trajectory reminds me of Eric Gordon. Maybe he’ll slip out of the top 3 if some players find a way to impress the NBA scouts and get behind Griffin because he’s in a slump right now.

    I think Harden will be a smaller Joe Johnson. His lack of athleticism is not an issue in my opinion. Like I said, Vince Carter can’t rely on his athleticism anymore and Harden won’t have to make the transition. He’s got a really strong body to compensate for that anyways.

    He would be a great pick IMO.

  • Chris Alvino

    I hear you Mucha.

  • Chris Alvino

    Harden is taller than Gordon.

    If Harden drops, it will be because scouts has doubts about his ability to create space against NBA defenders.

    Rick Pitino thinks that Terrance Williams is going to be a very good pro. I am not sure if he has a higher ceiling than Budinger though.

  • http://theKnicksBlog.com Tommy Dee

    Great point….

  • Mucha

    I know Harden’s taller Chris, I talked about Harden’s TRAJECTORY since Gordon’s slump hurt his draft position last year.

    Age is a factor you got to take into account, I think Harden (August 1989) still has a lot of upside. If Johnson’s able to create space in the NBA (the fact that he’s able to post up because of his height is incomparable though) Harden can do it as well. He and Warren are my picks.

    Peace.

  • http://theKnicksBlog.com Tommy Dee

    Harden had a miserable tournament. his stock is plummeting.

    I;m not in love with his game at all.

  • EQ1217

    Williams is a do everything type of player, he plays D, ‘bounds, passes & is capable of scoring. He reminds me of Larry Hughes except less selfish

  • Chris Alvino

    Yeah he had a big game.

    What I like about Harden is his ability to do everything. He has talent. The biggest downside is his lack of quickness. And that can be a big problem.

    Aldrich looked good today. 10 blocks…… That’s more blocks than any Knick has in total this year (not really, but it feels like that).

    This draft has the potential to have some good NBA players.

    Terrence Williams is a guy I like a lot. Donnie Walsh has said before that he is looking for players with energy. Williams has a ton of energy. He is a winning type of player too, which you have to like.

  • Chris Alvino

    Williams plays better defense than Budinger too.

  • BiggieSmalls

    Lee is a Restricted Free Agent after this season.. It is NOT possible to trade a restricted free agent without a sign and trade. And a sign and trade can not take place unitl after the player receives a qualifying offer and the league salary cap is set (June 30th for Offer Sheets and July 7th for the cap)
    So withthe draft on June 25th it is not possible to work a S&T for picks in this upcoming draft.

    I LOVE Rubio. He would be the ideal player to get. Unfortunately we are going to have to get a top three in the lotto in order to make that happen. So wish luck on our ping pong balls.

    I think right now we are 1.7% to get the top pick.. Dont know our chances for a top three. But it happens more often that not.

    Id give up Chandler in a second for a move up to top three. Rubio will be a star and he WILL come out this year for the money. Bank on that. His buyout is not an issue. Nike will cover that a few times over.

  • EQ1217

    Harden did not impress me at all these past 3 games. Budinger is an excellent shooter, but nothing more. Williams while not a good shooter, is extremely versatile, he’s like a point forward except a SG

  • BiggieSmalls

    Harden looked awful.. And that dopey beard didnt healp

  • Chris Alvino

    Harden has not been impressive of late. You’re right. If he winds up on the Knicks towards the bottom of the lottery, I would not be upset.

  • Mucha

    Yes Harden hasn’t been impressive of late but I don’t judge Starks by the 7th game in Houston. Ouch, I didn’t mean to bring back that memory… Harden has been great all year long, and he’s only 19 years old. I think he would be a great pick especially if he’s slipping.

  • bob knick slave

    budinger is going to be the 8th pick according to nbadraft.net.how is he gonna fall to the 2nd round?

  • CircleLimit4

    I’ve thought Harden has been overrated all season long. He’s a good player with fantastic heart and hustle but he’s not fast, he’s not strong and he’s not a sharpshooter. I’m not saying it’s easy to drive on 6’8” zit-faced centers or put up a NCAA 3pt against UTEP, but NBA ball is a big step and I don’t think Harden doesn’t have the physical talent to be an impact 2 guard in the pros. Baring some miraculous development of a passing game that turned him into a PG, I don’t think Harden should even a mid-lottery pick.

    Until his 2nd half blitzkrieg in the game against LSU, I thought Ty Lawson would end up as the 2nd round steal, not Budinger.

    I don’t think it’s likely that the Knicks would wrestle a lottery pick from a team but I could see them grabbing a mid-late first rounder in a weak draft. It’s not hard to imagine a mediocre playoff contender panicking and wanting a Knick asset after an early exit. If that was the case I would love to snag Ty Lawson. I know he’s undersized and people have questioned his durability but his ridiculous speed and pass first mentality is exactly what the 7SOL system needs.

  • CircleLimit4

    I don’t think Harden has* the physical talent

  • EQ1217

    Draft Express has Budinger as a late first rounder, so who really knows at this point where he might end up.

  • EQ1217

    No one would mind if Harden drops to the Knicks at 9 or 10, but considering all the draft gurus mention Harden as a top 2 or 3 pick, I was expecting a little more out of him.

  • EQ1217

    Thanks for clarifying this, I was wondering about the sign and trade rules

  • http://theKnicksBlog.com Tommy Dee

    My point exactly. He couldn’t get his shot off against a zone! He’s big he has to find a way to get attempts inside.

    I pass on him…

  • Mucha

    I don’t know Tommy, D’Antoni’s system needs high basketball IQ and unselfishness. Harden brings that to the table, so does Gallinari. We’ve had enough chuckers. The Knicks get a lot of open looks with ball movement and Harden could make it easier.

    There are reasons to be sceptical but he’ll be good IMO.

  • Chris Alvino

    Harden is a good player. There is no question. If the Knicks are picking around #10, and James Harden is still around, then they will get a good player at that spot.

  • Chris Alvino

    Harden is also a good passer, which is always a plus.

  • greatman42001

    What about my guy Adrien he is having a great tournament, he can find himself in the late 1st round/ 1st pick of second round with the tournament he is having and will continue to have! I love the way he plays the game, really hope the Knicks grab him if they let Lee go.