“I Play the Percentages”
Mike D’Antoni did some explaining last night in regards to whether or not to foul at the end of games when up by three points.
“…D’Antoni said he feels it’s not a given to foul with that much time left because the Knicks are a poor rebounding team. Against the Wizards, for instance, he said the fear is if McGee missed the second free throw, the Wizards could’ve grabbed the offensive rebound. The undersized Knicks, during their eight-game losing streak, were a minus-79 in rebounding, and allowed the Grizzlies to grab 17 offensive boards in last night’s 120-109 loss.
D’Antoni said he also is afraid the player about to be fouled could go into a quick shooting motion and be awarded three free throws.
“Conventional wisdom is to foul by everybody who has never coached a game,” D’Antoni said, taking a shot at his critics.
“Under five seconds, you always foul,” D’Antoni said. “Above five seconds, it gets dicey. You watch players, all you have to do is motion right there [to shoot]; he’s taking three [foul] shots. That’s a bad mistake. I play the percentages. The worst that happens is you control your own destiny and we had a shot at the end…”
The issue is more when the team has a foul to give, but the point is the same. When you’re an awful rebounding team, as the team has been the last two seasons, you can’t allow a team the opportunity to create points from the foul line. In other words, if you give the foul late you’re risking a shooting foul. But then the Knicks would at the very least get the ball back, assuming that the player would can all three free throws.
I’ve talked to 4 high-level coaches over the past two months and they’ve said it’s not an automatic given to foul. Those situations are taught in game film. A player moving forward against a certain number on the shot clock dictates and the message comes from the bench.
You’d be surprised at the team who would also play it “straight up” feeling they have that much confidence in their rebounding and defensive abilities. They don’t foul feeling the play represents weakness.
For D’Antoni, and many coaches, the percentage of hitting a three point shot under 5 seconds is very low. Unfortunately for the Knicks and Knick fans, it’s been 100% the last few times.
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