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Is Patience STILL The Name Of The Game?

by Ben Kopelman on March 23rd, 2010 at 10:05 am

Cleaning house was priority #1 for Donnie Walsh.  And, judging him on cap space and cap space alone, he’s done a bang up job.

But the real test is around the corner: how will DW spend that oh-so precious money that he spent two seasons hoarding from all corners of the league?

With Denver coming to town tonight, the daydreaming is a lot easier:

“LeBron James this summer, Carmelo Anthony next summer?

“The Knicks actually are in position to work the 2010-2011 superstar exacta if things fall a certain way.

“If they sign one maximum guy such as James or Joe Johnson and re-sign David Lee, they’ll probably be in position to have enough room for another maximum player in 2011, with Eddy Curry‘s $12M coming off the books after next season.”

We know the names out there this summer, and most of the names that are on the horizon for the summer of 2011-12.

The question I have is, does Walsh have the stomach to say “gimme one more year?”

After making the deadline moves earlier this season, I wrote about how the window of excuses is rapidly closing on the team’s head honcho.  While he could sit back and point at the man-made disaster that was the NY Knicks’ financial state and talent level when he entered the building in 2008, his “don’t blame me” clock is ticking. And it’s ticking fast.

So that begs the question: will DW spend everything he’s got this summer, knowing that this may be his one and only chance to make a fan-friendly splash?  Or will he ignore the back pages of the Post and Daily News and make what he considers the smart, responsible basketball decision – regardless of their popularity.

For me, LBJ is LBJ.  Wade is Wade.  But after those two, the talent level drops off in a big way.  I am as frustrated as any fan out there, but the thought of building toward a Joe Johnson – Chris Bosh summer is kinda deflating.  Maybe that is unfair.  But it’s truly how I feel.

With Curry’s money coming off the books after this season, and a guy like Carmelo Anthony likely to at least test the free agent waters, would Walsh be better suited making a play for one guy this year, keeping the home grown David Lee (for the right price, of course) and setting up for another surge the next?  Even if he thinks that plan is best, does DW have the gall to sit back and tell fans to be patient yet again…?

What do you guys think?

What do you want to do with the $$ this summer?


View Results

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  • BiggieSmalls

    ch as James or Joe Johnson and re-sign David Lee, they’ll probably be in position to have enough room for another maximum player in 2011, with Eddy Curry’s $12M coming off the books after next season.”

    that would be an Epic Fail.

    You dont trade the 8th overall pick, swap first rounders and throw in another first rounder to no spend the money.. OR spend it to sign David Lee.

    Donie could have kept the picks and Hill and had the money available for 2011.. I chose to go All In on 2010. Signing Lee is the worst case scenario. And would mean you traded Jordan Hill, a 2012 first and swapped another to commit 20% of the cap to a player who you could not win 35 games with.

  • BiggieSmalls

    I = he

  • starksoakmase

    I had a nightmare last night.

    LBJ, Wade and Both didn’t opt out of their final year and we had to endure another year of this Garbagio.

    Very likely scenario.

    LBJ and Anthony playing together? Not gonna happen.

  • LBJ2010

    Definitely agree with the Lee part of it, but it’s hard to call any summer an “epic fail” when it’s one that lands us LeBron, no?

  • onemoretime

    Walsh must know something we don’t because it would be foolhardy to make the Houston trade if he didn’t have some sort of guarantee he would use all the cap space this coming summer for 2 max players. Then again he proved very foolhardy in hiring the coach he did so i wouldn’t put anything by him.

  • Dylan

    What we could do is sign Lebron and Lee. Then we could sign Camby to a one year deal. We would then have enough to offer Melo a contract next year, leaving us with a 2011 lineup of:

    Douglas
    Lebron
    Melo
    Lee
    Varnado?

    Only problem is we wouldn’t have room for Chandler and Gallo.

  • LBJ2010

    I don’t think that’s a likely scenario at all, when the difference in max contracts this summer and in the summer of 2011 could amount to $5M per year.

  • BiggieSmalls

    Who’s going to break it to melo that he has to accept 5 mil less per to come to NYC?

    he has an option for 18.5 mil in 2011/2012 .. so he’s going to give that up to get a 13 mil max deal from Us?

    Assuming the new CBA lops the cap down closer to 50 mil based on a lower BRI percentage going to the players..

    In sum.. there are WAY too many variables to plan to sign ANY players in 2011… thats another reason why it is 2010 or bust… there may well be a work stoppage in 2011.

  • starksoakmase

    I sure hope he knows something we don’t.

    I don’t think he needs to sign 2 max guys though. 1 max (Joe J and Amare are not max guys) and good supporting cast would be just fine.

  • italian stallion

    He absolutely MUST spend it all this summer otherwise he dealt Hill, the 2012 pick, and the 2011 pick swap for absolutely nothing and will look like a total idiot.

    If he spends only part of it this summer, then he could just as easily have kept Hill and the picks and waited for Jeffries to come off the books in 2011 to sign a max FA in 2011.

    That’s why I am so worried. He’s under so much pressure to use it all in 2010 (otherwise be known as a complete moron for giving away Hill and picks for nothing) that he may wind up overpaying for guys like Joe Johnson, Rudy Gay etc.. They are very good players, but they are far from max contract players and far from good enough to lead us to the promised land. So if we overpay, we are right back to where Isiah left us, but perhaps a 40-45 win team instead of a 30 win team. We didn’t need Walsh for that.

  • BiggieSmalls

    true. But i dont think you can throw around “either James or Johnson” with that max slot..

    Joe Johnson and David lee with the money is an epic fail.. It is waaay less than this “coach” had in PHX when he couldnt get out of the Western Conference.

    If lebron comes its a success..

  • DwaneT

    “If they sign one maximum guy such as James or Joe Johnson…”

    I almost threw up on my keyboard. Please don’t put those two in the same frame. We need to get better… performance-wise, and positionally. That is the only definite. We can’t pay tier one money to tier two players. That will make us better performance-wise, but not positionally. By positionally, I mean that we have a combination of money and assets they can be used in trades and the free agent market to continue to upgrade through next year and into the summer of 2011. If we can’t get a “real” max player, get a solid center and shooting guard for 10 mil each. Use the money and assets we have to try to get CP3 and Carmello in a trades, and some draft picks during the year. Take advantage of the next wave of salary dumps next winter to pick up some upcoming studs who breakthrough during the season. If we sign any two players from the Johnson, Gay, Boozer, etc. group to 15 million dollars, Eddie Curry will instantly become the most important Knick of the last 10 and next five years. We will have to work magic out of his contract to ever have a chance to get a championship team. If we’re getting better performance-wise and positionally, we aren’t waiting, we’re building. I don’t have to win a championship next year, but I do have to be in the hunt for one for the five years afterward.

  • LBJ2010

    Agreed.

  • italian stallion

    I think the probability of the cap coming down further after this year is close to zero.

    1. The economy is already beginning to turn.

    2. Even if there’s a new distribution of revenue to the players, it’s is very unlikely to be implemented in a way that lowers the cap. They are more likely to phase it in over time.

    Just for arguments sake, let’s say revenue rises 5% annually starting next year. They could raise the cap by only 2.5% a year until they get to the goal distribution. That way the cap could keep rising but the players share would keep falling.

  • Mucha

    It’s all about 2010. I can’t understand the “spend wisely” POV, I sure hope Donnie Walsh didn’t trade Jordan Hill and 2 1st round draft picks for nothing! The Knicks will have to sign the best players available and build a well-balanced roster afterwards because we can’t rebuild through the draft.

    Oh yeah we can’t sign 1 max FA plus David Lee and hope that we’ll have enough capspace for Carmelo Anthony. 1st we don’t know if Melo’s willing to play for the Knicks, 2nd you gotta take Danilo Gallinari ($800’000) and the max player’s (more than $1.5 million) annual raises into consideration.

    Eddy Curry’s contract + Remaining capspace – Annual raises = Not enough capspace for Carmelo Anthony ($18 million contract)

  • BiggieSmalls

    Im not sure you can model 5% increases in BRI EVERY year..

    assume we are at 53 mil cap for 2010 with a 57% share going to the players… thats about 2.8 B in revenues..

    The owners want the Basketball related income split to be closer to 50/50 ..

    say revenues grow 5% next year to 2.9 Billion half of that divided by 30 is 48.3 mil per team.. that puts a 30% max player at 14 mil.

    Melo is potentially a FA in 2011 if he declines the Player option for 18.5 so that is when he cuts the deal..

    So Melo gives up 18.5 to take 14 in 2011? And faces a work stoppage in 2011?

  • starksoakmase

    I voted for the “spend wisely” option in that we shouldn’t give guys like Amare, Boozer or Joe J the max. Or give Lee and Gay 11-12 mil per.

    That is the nightmare scenario, If the 3 max guys sign elsewhere.

    It really is one or two of those 3 guys or bust. Anything less than that is overpaying guys to be perennial 4 or 5 seeds in the East.

  • italian stallion

    I don’t think he will sign here for less, but I don’t think the cap will come down again after this year

  • DVJ

    Can somebody please explain to me why it’s 2010 or bust?
    Why does Donnie have to spend all his $$ this summer?
    (be careful, there’s a trick question in there)

  • prettyToney

    I believe that if we strike out on Lebron we might as well wait till 2011 for Anthony because guys like Amare ,Gay, Johnson and Lee aren’t gonna get us anywhere. It doesn’t matter if people think its a “fail” Walsh has to set this franchise straight for the next decade.

  • Clancy3434

    Knick fans baffle me.

    The answer has to be spend, but spend wisely.

    If you can get Lebron and Wade/Bosh/Johnson, then you obviously do it.

    If you can get Lebron but not another top flight player, don’t waste it all on secondary players. Make sure you have enough cap flexibility down the road to spend when other free agents open up.

    If you can’t get Lebron, you have to be very smart about how you spend the money. This whole “we have to spend it all this summer of the trade was a waste” theory is so ridiculous that I can’t even bother trying to argue it.

    The key to this transformation was not just to get under the cap, but to have the all important phrase when it comes to operating in a sport that has a salary cap… “cap flexibility.”

    Not landing one of the big three would certainly be a huge disapointment, but it would not be a “nightmare scenario.” We’ve been in a nightmare for the past 10 years. As awful as it would be to come up empty in free agency, we would still be sitting there out from underneath the albatross of salary cap hell that was created starting with the Ewing trade.

  • starksoakmase

    It’s the only way to justify the JJ, Hill trade.

    Unless he signs 1 of the three max guys, signs a couple or other pieces and decides the other guys still on the market are asking for too much. i guess something like that would be ok. But he needs to get a real max guy.

  • joetheknick

    I was at the garden on Sunday and it was packed. As usual the team was competitive until the last few minutes when they again demonstrated their youth and inexperience. Better days are coming. Walsh has the cap space he promised. He will try to get Lebron or Dwyane. If they refuse he will use his experience and expertise to build the best team without them. The fail sets in only when his efforts do not produce a championship caliber team and the garden is no longer packed. Patience still rules. Some of the haters might be disappointed but you cannot make everyone happy.

  • vinrummy

    It’s been almost a decade of sucking now. I can wait an extra year if it means putting together the best group of FA and trade acquisitions. To blow all the cap space this season, on less than optimal players, would just go back to the old way of doing things under the Layden/Isiah eras which could set the franchise back another decade.

    You gotta keep an eye on what happens with Melo/CP3/Durant/etc.

  • starksoakmase

    i was with you until the last paragraph.

    it is a nightmare because we gave away so much in the JJ trade to be able to bring in a superstar. Not Joe J, not amare, a SUPERSTAR. Before he made that last trade, we were in position to get a superstar AND be able to bring in young guys through the draft AND use JJ’s expiring next year. Thats why its all about a SUPERSTAR NEXT YEAR!

  • starksoakmase

    Bro, CP3 can only be got through a trade before 2012.

    getting Melo is a crap shoot. 10 to 1 shot at best!

    OKC has a great fan base and a very goos supporting cast. I would be shocked if they trade him. He is a RFA! they would have to agree to a trade.

    Cannot wait for those guys

  • HaS

    “…The fail sets in only when his efforts do not produce a championship caliber team and the garden is no longer packed.”

    How does the Garden being packed ever translate to a win for fans? The Garden has been pretty packed (if not sold out) plenty over the past 10 seasons and yet this has been one of the lowest points in franchise history.

    I guess it equates to a win for Dolan.

  • traps9

    I think Walsh picking Miller over Alford alone shows he has the balls to do what he has to. But I have to echo the sentiments here that Lee/Johnson or whatever to that effect is a fail. Now, a Bosh signing along with a few pieces and cheap one year contracts until we can go after ‘Melo is something I’m totally in favor of. Bosh/Melo > Bosh/Johnson and worth the gamble, IMO.

  • onemoretime

    I have a feeling this offseason is going to be more about trades than actual free agent signings. Signing and trading Lee , trading Currys’ expiring with a Chandler or Gallo and then signing one high profile free agent.

  • Jeff C

    Mucha, i understand you think it’s all about 2010, and right now it is, obviously… but i think the question in the air right now is what IF we whiff on lebron etc… Would you guys be happy settling on JJ and amare and being locked into that for the future, with likely a very little chance of ever contending? My point is just that we stripped this team to the bone, and although the best options come in 2010, the plan should be to add whatever pieces we can, as long as we really want them and they fit, over the next few years. We can all be alarmist and demand a ring next year, but 3 years down the road if we are contending than it was a job well done. Obviously, its mostly about lebron, but that’s out of our hands, and if we don’t get him it doesn’t mean the ‘plan’ is over.

  • joetheknick

    Dolan, Walsh and D’Antoni want the Knicks to win a championship. My point is that patience is the best shot to get there. So long as the garden is relatively full, management will make the best decisions to get to a championship. As a fan, I have been disappointed in the past. To me, as a fan, I believe we have a management team that can deliver the Knicks to greatness. Just an opinion.

  • SilentJay

    He’s already all in, he sacrificed the team’s future. Next season getting into the playoffs is a must. This team couldn’t do it (or maybe this coach couldn’t do it with this roster, who knows anymore?), so it must be altered.
    I can’t just say, “spend wisely, maybe Melo will be available next year” when 2 draft picks are gone. C’mon. Face it, we don’t even know how we stand for this upcoming FA. Yes, yes, the attraction and allure of NY, the Nike contract, the colored jerseys and sneaks as well as the questionable “why hasn’t he resigned already?” that so many have asked to try to convince themselves that James will be testing the waters. The truth is, we don’t know, and other truth is that if he does, we don’t know if he’ll sign with us. Period. And I can’t just say save cash because we got fatty’s contract coming off the books, something that should help a ton.
    Whatever team is formed, it’s gotta be playoff bound, or all the sacrifice made to get to where we are capwise is a fail. Lee and Johnson would be a disaster, an unwatchable situation. Damn, I don’t even want to think about that. If you think about Amare, I’d rather set my eyes in Bosh, younger and getting better by the minute.

  • Clancy3434

    ya know the thing about cap space? it doesn’t go away if you don’t use it.

  • SilentJay

    Yup. Furthermore, those picks must be made obsolete by making a playoff bound team, with at least one star (plan A), or 3 top of the line players that get you results needed (which would be plan B).
    Besides, with the CBA alterations (or revisions) that might be made next season, there’s really no telling what could happen to the cap next year, so maybe it would also be a good idea to use EC’s fat contract (pun intended) as soon as possible.

  • http://www.reeltalkblog.com Shakespeare

    HONESTLY, FOR ME AND A LOT OF KNICKS FANS IT’S LEBRON OR BUST…..

    .Wade is one of my favorite players, but he’s toooo injury prone, he’ll start declining reallllllly soon a la AI the way he throws his body around….

    I honestly think i’d rather Joe Johnson, he already knows the system, and is 6’8, about 4inches taller than Wade, and a lil shorter than Lebron, who I believe is about 6’9, 6’10 at this point…..

    but w/ Johnson, we’d deffff need another star THIS YR….and that guy to me is Bosh, i think he’s a much better all around player than amare is….

    if we were to get these 2, i’d be ecstatic…..i know a lot of fans aren’t w/ me on this one, but JJ and Bosh i think are HUGE improvements ova what we’ve had here the last 10yrs…..and once we get curry off the books make a huggge push for cp3 n melo…

    MELO ALWAYS SAID HE WAS A HUGE KNICKS FAN GROWING UP IN BMORE…was born in bk…n maybe hornets are still in cost cutting mode w/ collison n thornton playing sooo well w/ cp3 out the past month plus…

    n if we add sum cheap vets like a camby, bell, house, i think we’d finallly b on our way….

    td/s-rod(team option)/house
    jj/giddens(team option)/bell
    chandler/gallo/walker(team option)
    gallo/bosh/chandler
    bosh/camby

  • SilentJay

    Why does everyone think Paul’s gonna available next year? This upcoming FA is the one. The one after isn’t bad, but it’s not nearly a full of options as this one.

  • ds2488

    I just said this on the other thread..but they absolutely have to spend all the money now. If they don’t, they gave up the 8th pick, and at least 1 first round pick for NOTHING AT ALL. Absolutely have to spend every last dime of that 8.5 million they created in cap space.

  • JustinCharles

    It’s all about Lebron. If we get Lebron, spend as much as needed to bring him here – even if its overpaying other veterans of his choice.

    If not, I would be OK with getting a Bosh or Rudy Gay, having a competitive 2010 season, and then luring someone big either in 2011 free agency or through trading expirings with the open cap space we would have.

  • Dylan

    The Knicks traded Hill and Jeffries for the ABILITY to sign 2 max free agents. If there aren’t 2 max free agents available though, then they shouldn’t just throw money at whoever is available just to use up the cap space. The trade was important because it gave them the ability to go to LeBron and tell him that he can pick any guy he wants to come here. Before the trade our best case scenario was LeBron. Now our best case scenario is LeBron AND Bosh/JJ/Gay/Amaer etc. It won’t necessarily work out, but Walsh obviously thought that it was worth the risk. If it doesn’t work out then yes it wasn’t worth trading Hill, but I’m still okay with taking the big risk. Hopefully we can get at least one big piece this year (LeBron, Wade, Bosh, JJ) and then we can go after a guy like Melo (who I think would fit great in NY) next year.

  • Mucha

    Not overpaying for Joe Johnson and Rudy Gay is a perennial 12th spot in the East with NO lottery pick.

  • Mucha

    If the Knicks overpay for Rudy Gay and Joe Johnson, they’ll be the 4/5/6th seed in the East but they’ll have some flexibility moving forward and the opportunity to make some trades in order to build a well-balanced roster.

    If the Knicks sit on the money and refuse to overpay for Rudy Gay and Joe Johnson (assuming that the 1st tier FA’s don’t want to sign with the Knicks) – the Knicks will be a PERENNIAL LOTTERY TEAM with NO LOTTERY PICKS.

    It’s all about 2010, PERIOD.

  • Mucha

    Yes it does.

    In 2011 Wilson Chandler and Toney Douglas will be RFA’s – I think Chandler will receive at least $8million. And the 2011 FA class is really not interesting, Carmelo Anthony will be the only franchise player on the FA market. In 2012 the Knicks will have to resign Danilo Gallinari and I think he’ll command at least $10 million. Not to mention the annual raises.

  • BiggieSmalls

    can lebron pick his coach too>?

    the chances of Melo in 2011 are slim and none.. and we have to pay Gallo and Chandler raised too.

    If you are relying on 2011 as a fall back then why give up almost three number ones?

    you are right that it was a risk.. and one worth taking .. but if it doesnt work out that still means it was a fail.

    i doubt Donnie is going anywhere.. He will likely retire before getting fired.. the “coach” is another story. He will probably quit before his contract expires if he doesnt get his superstars so he can look like a genius again.

  • Dylan

    I agree with you that if we don’t get two max free agents than it was a fail. However, I would still rather wait a year and get a chance at Melo than settle for guys like Boozer, or D-Lee along with Gay. I think it was a risk worth taking. Now we just need to wait and see what happens. Its pointless for people to say where LeBron will or wont sign because nobody on here knows that.

    As far as D’Antoni, I have NOT like what I have seen from him this year. He did a terrible job managing guys like Nate and Hughes, played vets like Chucketts and Duhon WAY too much, and didn’t do a good job developing Hill. However, I am willing to give him a chance to prove himself with a good roster before I kill the guy. Dealing with young players obviously isn’t his thing. If he proves himself next year though, all will be forgiven.

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