Okay, so I’ve had the chance to watch some video and talk to some guard prospects and have
heard some scouting reports from people’s camps, but at the end of the day the best information that I have to go on are the countless times I’ve seen the prospects play. For guys like Ricky Rubio or Brandon Jennings, who I really didn’t have the chance to see play much, it would appear that they still appear to be the first two guards taken, although the Kings may have a different say in that.
So without further adieu, here’s my take on the guards in order:
1- Ricky Rubio- What Jennings says aside, Rubio is still the premiere PG in this draft. He’s been playing elite-level professional basketball since he was 15 and from what I saw more than held his own against Team Redeem. In a free space-type system with adequate playmakers, the guy could be scary good. In a slow down, plodding half court set he will still find shots for teammates, but his jump shot could be exposed. That doesn’t mean he can’t be a solid jumpshooter. Remember Jason Kidd couldn’t hit a jumper coming out of college either and became a more-than-efficient spot/set shooter as his career progressed. And as far as the individual performances Jennings is referring to, remember basketball is a team game.
2- Jrue Holiday- I know, I’ve been more than high on Holiday, but here’s why in a word: Strength. Say what you want about play making and facilitating, and those are certainly important, I’ll take a guy who can do those things and is a rugged body. He weighed in a shade under 200 lbs and the kid still has the athleticism to make plays and will definitely be a ball-hawking guard his entire career. Derek Harper, or more recently Chauncey Billups are players you can equate Holiday’s frame to as well as the fact that they learned to be efficient lead NBA guards. The Knicks need two-way players, which is why I’m so confident that Holiday would be a great choice. Again, questions about his jumper have surfaced, but as we said with Rubio, that comes down to putting the time in to get better.
3- Brandon Jennings- I’ve talked to plenty of people in the AAU circuit who believe Jennings is the best PG prospect in the draft. That’s good enough for me, however something about his personality rubs me the wrong way. I’ve never met the kid, so that could be deemed as unfair, but when you feel the need to call out Rubio, as he did in Sacramento yesterday, something about it irks me. People know Rubio can play. Granted, Rubio has a ton of hype and he should play against the best, but at the end of the day Brandon just worry about yourself.
4- Stephen Curry- I’ll be more than happy with Curry and his ability to shoot if he gets drafted by the Knicks. Can you imagine Danilo and Curry surrounding the perimeter on kick outs? Man. However, I can imagine both spending time on the DL, and that’s a risk that Walsh needs to be careful with two years in a row. Obviously, you can’t predict injuries, that’s part of the deal with drafts, but I do have some concerns with Curry over 82 games. Still, he’s a great fit.
5- Tyreke Evans- This is a guy I’ve truly done the most homework on. There was a reason why Memphis won games and it was because Evans was making the decisions. I underestimated this fact. He can guard 3 positions, but how well is anyone’s guess. I’ve had people tell me that he does go for cheap steals and “falls asleep sometimes” on the help side. That is what makes me most leery. I was more inclined to classify Evans as a two, but he can fit as a one. He’d be a great value pick at 8, and can improve defensively, but hearing stuff about his defense makes me a little worried. Odds are Evans ends up in either Sacramento or Minnesota.
6- Jonny Flynn- What’s not to like about Flynn? His energy, his passion and his ability to make plays are great qualities. Sure, he can tone down the bursts of intense in-your-face trash talking, but you’d have to figure maturity will occur. In fact, I was very impressed with how he dealt with reporters in New York and Sacramento. I feel what separates Flynn from the others is his ability to pull up in the lane under control, get in the lane or make jumpers, which, as all well-schooled point guards know, falls under the category of “decision making.” I question his defense and his long distance shooting, especially off pick and rolls, which is why he falls on my board. But, I’m a fan and would gladly take him at 8.
7- Ty Lawson- A safe pick and a player who’s accustomed to the NBA game. He’s as good a two-way option as you can get, if you can get past his size. I think he’s going to be a solid NBA player for a long time, and isn’t that really what you should be looking for via the draft? As I’ve said before, don’t underestimate Lawson’s tournament-saving performance against LSU.
8- Eric Maynor- Another great value pick should Maynor fall to the teens. The kid knows he can excel in a system that is up-tempo and we agree. Not sure if he’s a ready-made starter, which is why he’s ranked behind the rest. You’d much rather have an older prospect ready to jump in right away and run the show. Not sure Maynor is that for a border-line playoff team. But he can be an instant rotation player.
9- Darren Collison- Much like Maynor, Collison would be a great off the bench 15-20 minute-a-night guard right away. How much is that valued? We’ll see.
10- Jeff Teague- Tough to judge why Teague has fallen so much, but you’d have to imagine he’s just too streaky. Had the draft been in January he’d have been a top 5 pick, but clearly he wasn’t that spectacular. If he can find some consistency, he’s a steal.
11- Patty Mills- Mills couldn’t raise his stock in Europe, but his style is still fit for the NBA game. He’ll get a shot somewhere because he can get into seems and kick out. But he’ll have to learn how to defend at the NBA level if he’s going to get minutes.