Category Archives: Draft Lottery
This is a topic that I’ve posted on this blog the previous two years on Lottery Day, but for the newer readers I’d like to raise the discussion again. I believe that the first pick in the draft should go to the non-playoff team with the best post All-Star break record. I spent 30 pages on this topic for one of my papers in law school in which I (hopefully) debunked every potential argument for the current system.
But, without going into too much detail the main gist of the argument is that there should never be an incentive to lose in any sport, on the flipside there should never be a punishment for winning. By giving all 30 teams an incentive to win you would develop even more parity than what currently exists in the sport today.
Tommy mentioned to me today that the NBA thrives off the success of tonight’s event, but I would counter with even more success coming from having all 30 teams play meaningful games down the stretch.
There are obviously a ton of arguments for the current system or even some minor tweaks to the system as opposed to my complete overhaul. So, let the discussion begin. I’ll try to respond in the comments section, but it will be easier to get me on twitter at @ansmith04.
I had a few people email certain points leading to the Knicks turnaround (thanks) and had a discussion 
with a season ticket holder who had the chance to sit in on a Knicks “town hall” meeting last night who asked to remain nameless.
The numbers told Mike D’Antoni early on in the season that his group shot a far lower percentage in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock. In the second half, from roughly 15-5 seconds remaining on the clock, the team made a much greater percentage, hence why the team had much more offensive success.
Now, by “offensive success” I don’t mean number of points, I mean efficiency. And no one has been more efficient than David Lee.
D’Antoni has rewarded Lee by allowing him to trigger the offense some possessions, the freedom to shoot jump shots, and the ability to break people down off the bounce from the perimeter.
And give the coach credit for recognizing that numbers don’t lie, and that the system can still work in the second half of the shot clock. The team just doesn’t have fast, high percentage shooters, or at least that many players with high FG%s in the first 10 (seven) second so of the shot clock. But they are developing.
See Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari.
Secondly, I’ve had the chance to watch Jordan Hill practice a bunch this year and tweeted this yesterday. I don’t have issue one with the kid’s work ethic, although I do agree that he seems to be too content with riding the pine. But whose to say that he hasn’t been told to focus on practice and to be ready to bust out of the gate next season? Sure, Hill COULD play 10-25 minutes per night on a horrid team. This one isn’t. They’ve been playing several games above .500 for a month now and are a serious playoff contender. So stop with the “how does the 8th pick not play?” nonsense. He’ll play next year, count on it. Right now he’s behind Jeffries, Lee and three point shooting 4s on the depth chart.
For those who haven’t seen enough of him, but somehow know he’s not a player (like they did with Gallinari on draft night BOOOO!!!!!) Hill frequently shows off a silky smooth jump shot that stretches out to 18 feet. The difference as to why Gallo played last year is that he could score thanks to unlimited range.
Hill’s athleticism has improved greatly as his strength has improved, and from what I’ve seen he is always working after practice with Herb Williams working on his back to the basket game, which is relatively non-existent. Lee plays the bulk of the minutes at the 5 spot spelled by Jeffries, who moves over from the 4 then gets paired with Gallinari, Chandler or Harrington at the 4 spot. Bender is part of the mix 2 because he is more of a spot shooter. Hill is a 5. There just aren’t any consistent minutes for him…yet. The two plays that stand out for me were the pick and roll banger against the Lakers and the stroke he showed off the other night against the Pacers. Yes, he likes to shoot and his shot selection in practice has been reeled in.
But to think he’s not a big part of the team’s future is crazy. I’ll take 6’11 athletic and who can shoot any day. This is not Channing Frye, he attacks the rim…and this is not Mikki Moore.
I couldn’t disagree more about Gerald Henderson. He has a very solid all-around “skill set.” He’s, obviously, a tremendous athlete and he’s strong on both ends of the floor. That translates. Plus K used a lot of D’Antoni’s system and we know physically gifted players with space can excel.
Just not sure if 8 is too high yet. You’ll know more after the workouts.
It’s the first thing I thought of when I saw Reggie, and Twittered and posted it immediately. Apparently, 1050 ESPN’s Andrew Marchand felt the same way.
“…With Reggie Jackson as his good luck charm, Allan Houston could not move the Knicks up from the eighth spot in the draft.
So the Knicks will remain at eight and will be thinking about guards. Davidson’s Stephen Curry seems like a real possibility. Donnie Walsh says he thinks he can play the point. Houston says Curry can pass better than people think. One thing is for certain, the Knicks will draft someone with Mike D’Antoni’s system in mind.
If they can move up, then Tyreke Evans from Memphis could be a possibility.
Yesterday, Houston and Jackson were at a charity event when Houston said he needed a good luck charm. Reggie said, “What about me?” So there was Jackson schmoozing with Commissioner David Stern, Sacramento’s representative Chris Webber and Houston moments before the Lottery began.
In the end, Houston went with Mr. October, but he might have done better if he had asked the man once dubbed Mr. May, Dave Winfield…”
Finger point to my boy Big C. We could have used Mr. May Dave Winfield.
Andrew Smith writes…..
I must kill the queen
6:39- So we’re in the house and as always this is a first class event. At first glance all the beat writers are surrounding Donnie Walsh, Chris Webber and Allan Houston are in the building.And wouldn’t you know it here comes Commissioner Stern so let’s see what he has to say…
7:03- Commissioner Stern just finished his State of the Union and he was very non-nonchalant with the teenagers going either to overseas or the NBDL saying that ultimately it was “the players and their families’ decision.”
He also had a laugh at the expense of the whole WWE situation assuring us that it would be taken care of. Again, the irony is that the two most brilliant sports marketing mind that I know, Stern and Vince McMahon, have collided. It’s a non issue though, in Stern’s words, again, it will be handled.
I asked Stern if he had ever seen anyone , at the same age, as good as Lebron. His reply was, jokingly, “I don’t know much about basketball” but then went on to applaud Dwight Howard, Carmelo Anthony and Kobe Byrant.”
7:26- Spot on Hahn is next to me and he’s telling all his Fixers reading this to “go back to where you belong.” Alan is a great dude, and will be a guest on TKB.tv at a date TBD.
7:40- For those interested, check out my boy Sebastian Pruiti’s live lottery chat at netsarescorching.
8:05- bilas has thabeet at the second best player? Woah.
Also, houston brought reggie jackson as luck…draw your own conclusions. He should have brought winfield, at least he was Mr. May…
8:15- hanging with jonathan givony who will also jump on TKB.tv next week to talk draft picks. Draftexpress.com flat gets it done.
8;30- thabeet is going to drop like a wedding dress on draft night…
8:35- hey look, reggie and ahmad right in front of me…
8:45- yep that was me behind reggie.
846- needed winfield- it’s 8.
Interesting choice to use jelly beans, no truth to the rumor that Ronald Reagan was the auditor. (finger point to Gym Rat slumdogballer for the alley…)
Basically, if any team shows up at 8, the Knicks have jumped into the top 3.
Anyway, just for fun here’s TKB’s mock jelly bean draft.
1) Memphis- Blake Griffin- Maybe they want a PG who can score, although I’m not sold on that notion, but they aren’t taking Ricky Rubio. They take Griffin or trade down.
2) Sacramento- Ricky Rubio. Then they have to figure what to do with Beno Udrih.
3) Your Knicks- Stephen Curry. I really think the Knicks may look to move down to a team that loves James Harden and tries to acquire that elusive 2010 pick then grab Curry. But I think they really want him and would take him at 3. It may be a reach, hence looking to deal, but Curry is moving up the boards. The third spot is not a sexy spot, but Oklahoma has some chips to deal with 3 picks this year and Phoenix’s unprotected next year. Maybe the Knicks try to trade to 6 along with another piece in order to grab one of those picks. But would Oklahoma trade up for Harden or Jordan Hill? Does Donnie Walsh take Jrue Holiday? Remember, he loved Westbrook last year. Again, as hoopsworld is reporting, Curry and Holiday are shooting up the board and may jump into the top 5.
How about the Kings? What would it take to move up one spot?.
Seems the Knicks have some serious decisions if the jelly beans prove prophetic.
4) Wizards- Jordan Hill- They are loaded with guards, and Hill gives them size up front (edit).
5)Clippers- James Harden- They may look to try and move Baron Davis, maybe to Houston for Tracy McGrady, a deal that was very hot and heavy at the trade deadline.
6) Thunder- Hasheem Thabeet. Great youth on this roster along with flexibility, they can add a few veterans and allow Thabeet to develop.
7) Minnesota- Brandon Jennings. Telfair is not the answer, but he can be for the meantime as Jennings develops.
8 Golden State- Tyreke Evans. Seems perfect for Nellie ball.
9) Raptors- James Johnson. Insurance policy at the 4 if Bosh bounces or is traded.
10) Bucks- Jrue Holiday- Holiday fits the Buck’s need for backcourt help.
11) Nets- Gerald Henderson- Perfect athletic option to pair with Vince Carter and Devin Harris.
12) Bobcats-Earl Clark. I’m thinking DeJuan Blair could be an option but Clark is too talented to pass on.
13) Pacers- Ty Lawson- Point guard help. Could see Maynor here.
14) Suns- Eric Maynor- The Suns are in transition, meaning they need a guard who can get out with some slow down capabilities.
Hey Knicks fans! The 2009 NBA Draft Lottery takes place on Tuesday, May 
19th and the Knicks currently have a 2.8% chance to win the #1 pick. Will the Knicks move up and win the draft lottery? Let us know your pick by entering the Knicks “Make Your Pick” contest! Pick the Knicks correct 2009 NBA Draft position and what player they will ultimately select and you could win two (2) tickets* to a Knicks home game during the 2009-10 season! Fully complete the entry form below before May 19th to be entered.
Good luck to all who enter…
Read Full Article.
Reports say that the Knicks have had discussions with Davidson guard Stephen Curry even though Curry’s camp has denied them. I was down on Curry as an option for the Knicks, but I think I was caught up in the hype of a kid who couldn’t lead his team back to the big stage of the NCAA Tournament. The more I study tapes on the kid, the more I realize that he has a perfect skillset for Mike D’Antoni’s offense.
Turns out we shouldn’t have expected a return to glory from Davidson because Curry’s performance, with his surrounding talent, was probably a once-in-a-lifetime achievement. But now I realize that that should not to take anything away from the kid’s NBA future.
It appears that the Knicks feel that Curry, a high-IQ guard from a decision-making standpoint, can play both point guard and shooting guard, which would give the team some added depth and give them another young pure shooter to add to last year’s top pick, Danilo Gallinari. In D’Antoni’s spread offensive system that thrives on space, having two players who can rip the twine is a pretty solid foundation moving forward. Curry can create for teammates and himself off of the dribble as the lead guard, and D’Antoni would be wise to run him off screens in way that has made Richard Hamilton one of the league’s most effective guards.
Curry’s game appears to have similarities to Steve Nash, whom the Suns picked 15th overall in 1996. Nash was a relative unknown talent who, after a few years of development at a small school, has gone on to become a future Hall-of-Fame guard. People questioned Nash’s strength and defensive capabilities right out of college, and Curry has had similar doubters.
Curry has shown the ability to be a capable pick-and-roll player, which Nash has mastered, and Curry is also an above-average passer. Come to think of it, wouldn’t it be something if Nash came here as a free agent and mentored the kid? Nash could bolt Phoenix if the economically conscious Suns decide that Nash is no longer worth his expensive price tag.
What Curry would bring to the Knicks is a guard who has been developed in college and has a great feel for how a coach wants the game played. From Stephon Marbury, who was at odds with every coach in his tenure with the Knicks, to Jamal Crawford, who sadly was never groomed into a complete player, the team has lacked consistent, smart basketball from the guard position. Mike D’Antoni craves someone who can kickstart his high-octane offense his way. And he should; he’s proven that it can work with the right players. More.
In fairness, Frank Isola thinks that selecting Curry is a bit premature, and wonders if he’s really a point guard.
Curry is the one who compared himself to Nash. I believe Curry has the fundamentals to be a very solid pick and roll player and he does have similarities to Nash at Santa Clara. They can shoot, handle, are well- above average passers, they have the exact same frame and they both dominated at small schools. Also, they had their share of doubters.
And if the Knicks stay at 8 and don’t take Curry, I’ll gladly take Gerald Henderson or Ty Lawson. But I’d have to think that Curry is on top of the list at this point. I even think they’d deal up to get him.
We’ve had plenty of discussions about how Chris Duhon may need some help in the backcourt and as this roster develops you can bet that somewhere along the lines Donnie Walsh will add a point guard. I think it’s a virtual lock that Steve Nash comes here, regardless of all the Jason Kidd stuff, but hey if you can get Kidd for the MLE you think hard about it.
You also have to think hard about keeping Duhon past 2010.
So of all the needs Walsh has, does it make sense for him to go after a point guard in the draft this year? Does he take a Ricky Rubio if they finish high in the lottery, or go after a Brandon Jennings?
There’s a guy flying under everyone’s radar right now, and he may be just as talented as the two mentioned before. He’s Jeff Teague of Wake Forest and he is having a wonderful start to his sophomore campaign.
Teague is a hybrid guard in every sense of the word. He’s not a pure one but he can create. He can score and distribute, but he is an absolute dynamite shooter, at least that’s what he’s showing thus far. This year he’s shooting 50% from the field and a staggering 54% from behind the arc. Yesterday he had 34 in a huge win for the Deacons over North Carolina.
He’s a high turnover guy, which I don’t love, but he’s young and could be another thoroughbred in Mike D’Antoni’s system.
He’ll be in the conversation should the Knicks wind up in the lottery once again.
Read draftexpress’ scouting report on Teague.
